The IMF is projecting that the Asia-Pacific region will continue to be the engine of global economic growth, forecasting an expansion of around 4.5 % in 2025, even as mounting trade risks and structural headwinds loom. (Thailand Business News)
Despite higher tariffs, shifting supply-chains and geopolitical uncertainties, the region is expected to contribute about 60 % of worldwide growth in 2025–26. (IMF)
What’s fueling the resilience
- A strong export rebound, partly driven by companies front-loading shipments ahead of tariff hikes, has boosted activity. (IMF)
- Governments and central banks across the region have maintained accommodative fiscal and monetary policies, providing a cushion against external shocks. (Thailand Business News)
- Internal supply-chain shifts and expanding intra-regional trade have allowed Asia to reduce dependence on a single export market and adapt more nimbly. (IMF)
The underlying caution
While the near-term outlook is robust, the IMF warns of significant risks: persistent trade tensions, new tariffs or retaliatory measures, an aging population, weak productivity growth, and financial vulnerabilities could all derail momentum. (Siam News)
Country & regional snapshots
- The major ASEAN block is expected to grow at around 4.3 % in both 2025 and 2026, supported by recovering manufacturing and domestic demand. (IMF)
- China’s growth is projected to slow from about 4.8 % this year to roughly 4.2 % in 2026. (Thailand Business News)
- India remains an outlier in strength, with growth forecast at 6.6 % in 2025, dipping only modestly to 6.2 % in 2026. (IMF)
Policy prescriptions for sustainability
The IMF highlights key actions for policymakers in the region:
- Boost domestic demand: shift away from purely export-led growth.
- Deepen regional integration: strengthen intra-Asia trade links to reduce vulnerability to external shocks.
- Improve productivity & demographics: address aging populations, increase investment in technology and skills, and clean up financial systems. (Thailand Business News)
Why this matters for Thailand
As a member of the broader Asia-Pacific region, Thailand sits amid the same global headwinds and structural shifts. Strengthening export sectors, diversifying markets, and tapping domestic demand will be critical to maintain growth and cushion against global uncertainty.